847 AXPZ20 KNHC 151614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 02.5N103W to 02N116W, where it continues as the ITCZ to 02N123W to 03N134W and to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 01.5N E of 94W to coastal Ecuador. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 06N between 121W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure NW of the region is anchored by a 1028 mb high near 30N129W, and extends a ridge SE across over the offshore waters to 19N109W. The associated pressure gradient is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest winds along the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights of 5-8 ft due to mixed N and NW swell. Seas are highest across the outer waters N of 25N. Gentle to moderate NNW winds prevail over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern SW Mexican offshore waters along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in place the next couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte today, reaching the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night. A gap wind event is forecast to begin by early this afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with strong north winds. These winds will reach to near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed. They will diminish to fresh speeds Wed afternoon and become west to northwest moderate winds Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region producing wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell. Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed. Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N129W, with a ridge extending southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 6-9 ft north of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 115W. Strong northeast to east trade winds are over a section of the western part of the area that covers the waters from 05N to 10N between 137W-140W, with resultant wave heights of 8-11 ft.These winds will diminish to fresh speeds on on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell. The northwest swell component is from a large swell that recently entered the NW forecast waters, and will propagate southeastward through most of the region going into Thu. Divergence to the east of a large mid to upper-level trough over the far western part of of the area from 05N to 19N between 130W-141W continues to help sustain areas of moderate rain and moderate from 09N to 14N between 134W-138W, and from 12.5N to 20N between 125W-138W. This activity is likely to change little through Wed as the trough remains about stationary over that part of the area. $$ Stripling