000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151030 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N105W to 02N117W, where it continues as the ITCZ to 02N125W to 03N134W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 132W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated High pressure over the offshore waters that is anchored by a 1029 mb high near 30N128W is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest winds along the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights of 5-7 ft due to a northwest swell, except for slightly higher wave heights of 6-8 ft north of about 27N. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 3 f or less. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern SW Mexican offshore waters along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest swell. As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in place the next couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte today tonight reaching the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night. A gap wind event is forecast to begin by early this afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with strong north winds. These winds will reach to near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed. They will diminish to fresh speeds Wed afternoon and become west ot northwest moderate winds Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell. As for the forecast, gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed. Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 30N128W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 5-8 ft north of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 115W. Strong to near gale-force northeast to east trade winds are over a section of the western part of the area that covers the waters from 05N to 10N between 137W-140W, with resultant wave heights of 8-12 ft. These conditions are being induced due to the gradient between a surface trough along a position from 13N138W to 06N140W and high pressure to its north. By early this afternoon, the gradient will relax just enough allowing for the gale-force winds to diminish to strong speeds, with wave heights subsiding slightly. These winds will diminish further to fresh speeds on speeds on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell. The northwest swell component is from a large set of swell that recently entered the NW forecast waters, with wave heights of 8-11 ft. This swell set is forecast to propagate southeastward through most of the region going into Thu. Divergence to the east of a large mid to upper-level trough over the far western part of of the area from 05N to 19N between 130W-141W continues to help sustain areas of moderate rain and moderate from 09N to 14N between 134W-138W, and from 13N to 18N between 125W-134w. This activity is likely to change little through Wed as the trough remains about stationary over that part of the area. $$ Aguirre