000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130355
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: Strong high pressure is building
behind a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Storm-force north winds have started in the the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are funneling across the Chivela Pass, supporting 
storm-force winds in the Tehuantepec region as a very tight
gradient has set-up over southern Mexico. Peak wave heights 
are in the range of 13-20 ft. These winds will diminish to 
strong gale-force speeds on Sun and continue through Sun evening.
Afterwards, strong to near gale-force winds will gradually 
diminish through Mon morning. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center, at this website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the
coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 04N80W to 02N90W to 03N96W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 04N110W to 04N120W to 04N131W.
It resumes at 04N138W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 
93W-96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high near 30N131W 
continues to provide moderate northeast winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 3-5 ft in
a south to southwest swell. Along the Gulf of California, fresh 
to strong northwest winds continues all the way to the Nayarit 
offshore waters with wave heights of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle 
northwest winds are elsewhere along the SW Mexican offshore 
waters, with wave heights of 2-3 ft. 

A gap wind event is ongoing for the region of Tehuantepec with 
storm-force winds. See the Special Features section for further 
details. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California will 
gradually diminish this evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail off Baja California Norte through the middle 
of next week when the next gap wind event is forecast for 
Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to 
gentle variable winds, with wave heights to 5 ft. Moderate E 
winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of 
Panama. 

Gentle winds continue will through most of the forecast period, 
except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh to
strong by Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate northerly
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through Mon 
night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1027 mb high near 30N131W continues to extend a
ridge across the high seas, supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and wave heights 5-8 ft north of
the ITCZ and west of 115W. Locally strong winds are noted from 
10N to 15N west of 137W.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will continue across 
the area with seas ranging between 8-10 ft through mid-week. 
Active convection is expected over the weekend north of the ITCZ
and west of 130W. 

$$
Aguirre