000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front continues
to move across the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds following the
front are funneling across the Chivela Pass, supporting strong to
gale-force winds this morning in the Tehuantepec region. Strong 
gale-force winds are expected early this afternoon increasing to
storm-force before the evening hours. Peak seas will range
between 18 to 22 ft. Winds will diminish back to strong gale- 
force early on Sun and continue through Sun afternoon. 
Afterwards, strong to near gale-force winds will gradually 
diminish through Mon morning. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center, at this website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
03N94W to 04N108W. The ITCZ extends from 04N108W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 03N 
between 86W to 95W, and from 02N to 08N between 116W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high near 30N132W continues
to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore 
waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of 
California, fresh to strong NW winds continues all the way to the
Nayarit offshore waters with 5 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle NW 
winds are elsewhere along the SW Mexican offshore waters with
seas to 3 ft.  

A gap wind event is ongoing for the region of Tehuantepec with 
strong gale-force winds starting this afternoon rapidly 
increasing to storm-force before the evening hours. See the 
Special Features section for further details. Fresh to strong 
winds in the Gulf of California will funnel through the central 
and southern Baja peninsula into the offshore waters. The 
pressure gradient across the area will diminish this afternoon 
and winds along the Gulf of California will gradually diminish 
into this evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail off Baja California Norte through the middle of next week
when the next gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to 
gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are 
pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo out to 88W. In the Gulf of 
Panama, gentle to moderate N winds are noted. 

Gentle winds will prevail through most of the forecast period,
except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong by Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate 
northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight 
through Mon night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 30N132W continues to 
extend a ridge across the high seas, supporting moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 115W.
Locally strong winds are noted from 10N to 15N W of 137W.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the area 
with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft through mid-week. Active 
convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 
130W. 

$$
Ramos