000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...Special Features... Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds following the front are funneling across the Chivela Pass, supporting strong to gale-force winds this morning in the Tehuantepec region. Strong gale-force winds are expected early this afternoon increasing to storm-force before the evening hours. Peak seas will range between 18 to 22 ft. Winds will diminish back to strong gale- force early on Sun and continue through Sun afternoon. Afterwards, strong to near gale-force winds will gradually diminish through Mon morning. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W to 03N95W to 03N106W. The ITCZ extends from 03N106W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 126W to 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N128W continues to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of California, scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf extending south to Clarion Island. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft. Gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, except near Puerto Vallarta where moderate to fresh winds are noted with seas in the 2-5 ft range. A gap wind event is forecast for the region of Tehuantepec with gale-force winds starting Sat morning rapidly increasing to storm-force during the afternoon hours. See the Special Features section for further details. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California will funnel through the central and southern Baja peninsula into the offshore waters. The pressure gradient across the area will diminish Sat afternoon and winds along the Gulf of California will gradually diminish into this evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail off Baja California Norte through the middle of next week when the next gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Scatterometer pass indicated moderate E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo out to 88W. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds are noted. Gentle winds will prevail through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh to strong by Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 33N128W continues to extend a ridge across the high seas, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 115W. Locally strong winds are noted from 10N to 15N W of 137W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the area with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft through mid-week. Active convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. $$ Ramos