000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120410
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sat night. Northerly
winds following the front will funnel across the Chivela Pass,
leading to the development of storm-force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale-force winds will begin to affect
the region of Tehuantepec Sat morning, rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours along with building seas
to 22 ft. Winds will diminish to strong gale-force Sat night and
continue through Sun early in the evening. Afterwards, strong to
near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Mon morning.
For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N93W to 03N106W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N106W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N to 06N between 97W to 106W, and scattered
showers along the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N129W continues
to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore 
waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of California,
fresh to strong NW winds prevail with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds are elsewhere along the S and SW Mexican offshore
waters with seas in the 1-3 ft range. 

A gap wind event is forecast for the region of Tehuantepec with
gale-force winds starting Sat morning rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours. See the Special Features
section for further details. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
California will funnel through the central and southern Baja
peninsula into the offshore waters tonight. The pressure gradient
across the area will diminish Sat afternoon and winds along the
Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail off Baja California Norte
through the middle of next week when the next gap wind event is
forecast for Tehuantepec.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to 
gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Scatterometer pass
indicated moderate E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo
out to 88W. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds
are noted. 

Gentle winds will prevail through most of the forecast period,
except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong by Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate 
northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight 
through Mon night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 33N129W continue to extend
a ridge across the high seas, supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 115W. Locally
strong winds are noted from 10N to 15N W of 137W.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the area 
with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft through mid-week. Active 
convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 
130W. 

$$
Torres