000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sat night. Northerly
winds following the front will funnel across the Chivela Pass,
leading to the development of storm-force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale-force winds will begin to affect
the region of Tehuantepec Sat morning, rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours along with building seas
to 18 ft. Winds will diminish to strong gale-force Sat night and
continue through Sun early in the evening. Afterwards, strong to
near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Mon
morning. For further details, please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N100W to 04N116W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N116W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01N to 09N W of 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N130W continues
to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore
waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of 
California, fresh to strong NW winds prevail with seas to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate NW winds are elsewhere along the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 1-3 ft range.  

A gap wind event is forecast for the region of Tehuantepec with
gale-force winds starting Sat morning rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours. See the Special Features
section for further details. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
California will funnel through the central and southern Baja
peninsula into the offshore waters tonight. The pressure gradient
across the area will diminish Sat afternoon and winds along the
Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail off Baja California Norte
through the middle of next week when the next gap wind event is
forecast for Tehuantepec.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to 
gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. 

Gentle winds will prevail through most of the forecast period,
except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh to
strong Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate northerly
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through Mon
night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 35N132W.
A broad ridge extends southward to 110W. The combination of the
tight pressure gradient south of the ridge and the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 04N to 20N, and
W of 120W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas 
are 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone. To the 
S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas
of 4 to 7 ft.

The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will continue to 
support fresh trades across the area with seas ranging between
8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will 
diminish this weekend as a cold front approaches far NW portions 
of the discussion area. Active convection is expected over the 
weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. 

$$
Ramos