000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sat night. Northerly
winds following the front will funnel across the Chivela Pass,
leading to the development of storm-force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale-force winds will begin to affect
the region of Tehuantepec Sat morning, rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours along with building seas
to 18 ft. Winds will diminish to strong gale-force Sat night and
continue through Sun early in the evening. Afterwards, strong to
near gale force winds will gradually diminish through Mon
morning. For further details, please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N100W to 04N116W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N116W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01N to 09N W of 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N130W continues
to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore
waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of 
California, fresh to strong NW winds prevail with seas to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate NW winds are elsewhere along the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 1-3 ft range.  

A gap wind event is forecast for the region of Tehuantepec with
gale-force winds starting Sat morning rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours. See the Special Features
section for further details. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is leading to mainly 
gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are 
pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo diminish tonight.

Gentle winds will prevail. Fresh to locally strong gap winds 
will pulse over the Papagayo region beginning again Sun, as high 
pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front moves N of the area. 
Moderate to fresh winds are also likely to develop Sun night in 
the Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 35N132W.
A broad ridge extends southward to 110W. The combination of the
tight pressure gradient south of the ridge and the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 04N to 20N, and
W of 120W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas 
are 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone. To the 
S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas
of 4 to 7 ft.

The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will continue to 
support fresh trades across the area with seas ranging between
8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will 
diminish this weekend as a cold front approaches far NW portions 
of the discussion area. Active convection is expected over the 
weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. 

$$
Ramos