000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...Special Features... Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front will move through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico Sat afternoon into Sun. The tightening pressure gradient and drier air following the front will combine and lead to a storm-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat afternoon and diminishing Sun morning. Gale force winds will then continue through Sun early in the evening while fresh to strong winds will continue through Mon morning. Peak seas will build between 16 to 20 ft offshore. A large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft will extend as far as 500 nm downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Panama and Colombian border near 07N78W to 03N99W to 04N116W. The ITCZ extends from 04N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W to 140W. Scattered showers are also possible along the monsoon trough between 89W to 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A broadening surface ridge continues across the area from high pressure across the NE Pacific south and southeastward through near 22N116W. The associated pressure gradient across the Baja offshore waters is supporting mainly gentle Nly winds with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A cold front has entered the Gulf of California tonight and has begun to freshen winds across Baja Norte waters, with winds up to 25 kts, and seas building 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the Baja Sur and Gulf of California through tonight before the cold front sweeps southward across the Gulf and the Baja Peninsula. NW to N winds will freshen across Baja Norte waters then across the remaining Baja offshore waters today. Expect moderate to fresh winds along the Gulf with seas building up to 8 ft in building NW swell. New northerly swell behind the front will raise seas to 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte. Strong winds will diminish Sat afternoon through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A weak pressure gradient across the area is leading to mainly gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo diminish tonight. Gentle winds will prevail. Fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse over the Papagayo region beginning again Sun, as high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front moves N of the area. Moderate to fresh winds are also likely to develop Sun night in the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 35N132W. A broad ridge extends southward to 110W. The combination of the tight pressure gradient south of the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 04N to 20N, and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone. To the S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will continue to support fresh trades across the area with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend as a cold front approaches far NW portions of the discussion area. Active convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. $$ Ramos