000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N89W to 02N105W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N108W to 05.5N112W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 04.5N between 90W and 106W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A broadening surface ridge continues across the area from high pressure across the NE Pacific south and southeastward through 30N129W to near 22N122W. The associated pressure gradient across the Baja offshore waters is supporting mainly gentle Nly winds with seas of 3 to 6 ft. A cold front is just N of the area across southern California and has begun to freshen winds across the Baja Norte waters to around 15 kt, and seas of 5-8 ft in building NW swell. Winds have become southerly across most of the Gulf of California in advance of the cold front, and S to SW near 15 kt across far N portions, where seas are 3-4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the Baja Sur and Gulf of California into the evening hours before the cold front sweeps southward across the Gulf and the Baja Peninsula. NW to N winds will briefly freshen across the Baja Norte waters late this afternoon through tonight and then across the remaining Baja offshore waters tonight into Fri morning then gradually veer N to NE. New northerly swell behind the front will raise seas to 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte this evening into Fri. Strong winds will follow the front down the Gulf of California beginning this evening across far N portions and spread S tonight through Sat morning before diminishing Sat afternoon through Sun. Sea inside the Gulf will peak near 9 ft across N portions Fri morning and then across central portions early Sat. As this cold front continues SE and across the Gulf of Mexico late Fri through late Sat, strong gales will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat and continue into Sun night. These gale are expected to quickly develop around midday Sat and reach near 45 kt with gusts to storm force Sat afternoon and evening. Associated seas downwind may reach 20 ft Sat evening and night and extend well offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A weak pressure gradient across the area is leading to mainly gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gap winds across the Papagayo region will diminish tonight. Mainly gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse over the Papagayo region beginning again Sun, as high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front moves N of the area. Moderate to fresh winds are also likely to develop Sun night in the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 38N133W. A broad ridge extends southward between 110W and 145W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 22N, to the W of 122W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere W of 118W. To the S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will support fresh trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend as a cold front approaches far NW portions of the discussion area. Active convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. $$ Stripling