000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020210
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends near the border of Panama and Colombia 
from 07N78W to 05N90W to 02N105W. The ITCZ extends from 02N108W
to 09N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 12N between 116W and 123W, and from 12N to 18N
between 120W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale force N winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, along with building seas of 7 to 10 ft. Fresh N-NE 
swell earlier generated by these gap winds has also propagated to
near 10N100W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. A ridge of high pressure
extends across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are under the ridging, along 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell, locally to 8 ft offshore of 
Baja California. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California,
except to 4 ft near the entrance.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will
continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, followed
by fresh to strong N winds Fri through Fri night, diminishing to
gentle by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through Thu morning. Long period NW swell west of Baja 
California will continue to subside this evening. Fresh to 
locally strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by
Fri and persist through the weekend behind a dying cold front. 
NW swell will come with this cold front, with seas building to 
10 to 14 ft west of Baja California Norte by late Fri. Seas of 
8 to 10 ft will build southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat.
Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of 
California ahead of the front Thu night into Fri

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
along with 5 to 7 ft seas offshore. Fresh to strong N winds have
developed in the Gulf of Panama along with building seas of 4 to
6 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell are well offshore 
Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, 
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through at least Fri 
night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong 
tonight, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist early this evening over
the waters offshore Guatemala, due to a gap wind event occurring
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge across the waters
north of the ITCZ. Gentle anticyclonic winds are over the waters
north of 25N between 127W and 133W with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the open waters. A cold
front is entering near 30N140W with fresh N-NE winds behind it
about to breach the area. A new set of NW swell with seas of 8 to
12 ft has outrun the front and extends across the northwest
corner of the area. Meanwhile old NW swell mixed with fresh NE
wind waves with seas of 7 to 9 ft covers the waters south of 20N
and west of 125W. Seas of mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW swell covers 
the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the 
northern part of the region through tonight, to the east of the
encroaching cold front. The area of moderate to fresh trades 
will gradually diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell over 
the area will subside somewhat tonight across the west-central 
and southwest waters. The cold front will extend from 30N136W to 
27N140W early Wed, from 30N127W to 25N140W early Thu and from 
31N116W to 25N121W early Fri. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds 
are forecast behind the front, along with NW swell. By Fri, low 
pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W 
with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest 
corner of our area, along with building seas in W swell. Farther 
east, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are likely 
north of 28N between 120W-128W Thu night and Fri behind the 
aforementioned cold front.

$$
Lewitsky