000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 03N95W to 03N105W to 04N108W. The ITCZ extends from 04N108W to 08N118W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 114W and 127W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 116W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong to near gale force N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent altimeter satellite pass from 01/1730 UTC reveals 8 to 10 ft seas well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along a line from 13N96W to 10.5N95W. High pressure is centered northwest of the area. A recent ASCAT satellite pass from 01/1744 UTC shows gentle NW winds in the Gulf of California and over the waters to the west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are 7-8 ft west of Baja California in NW swell. Seas are 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere, west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds will continue through Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, followed by fresh to strong N winds Fri through Fri night, diminishing to gentle for the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle winds will prevail through Thu morning. Long period NW swell west of Baja California will continue to subside through this evening. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by Fri and persist through the weekend behind a dying cold front. NW swell will come with this cold front, with seas building to 10-14 ft west of Baja California Norte by late Fri. Seas of 8-10 ft will build southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night into Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with 5 to 7 ft seas offshore. An ASCAT satellite pass from 01/1427 UTC shows moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are likely 3-4 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell are well offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night across the Papagayo region through at least Fri night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong tonight, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist into this evening over the waters offshore Guatemala before subsiding overnight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A high pressure ridge extends from 30N130W to 23N135W, with gentle winds covering the area north of 25N between 125W-135W, according to recent ASCAT satellite wind data. The area of fresh trades north of the ITCZ continues to shrink in areal extent, and now extends from the ITCZ to 18N between 125W and 138W. Moderate S winds are developing now in the NW corner of the area, north of 25N and west of 135W, ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 8-9 ft within the fresh trade wind area. Seas are 6-7 ft east of 115W. A new set of NW swell has entered the NW corner of our forecast area, with 8-12 ft seas north of 24N and west of 134W. The cold front responsible for generating this swell is still NW of the area, currently from 32N138W to 29N143W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the front, extending north of 27N and west of 137W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the northern part of the region through tonight, to the east of the approaching cold front. The area of fresh trades will gradually diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will subside somewhat tonight from the ITCZ to 18N between 124W and 140W. The cold front NW of the area will cross 30N140W early this evening. The front will extend from 30N136W to 27N140W early Wed, from 30N127W to 25N140W early Thu and from 31N116W to 25N121W early Fri. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell. By Fri, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in W swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are likely north of 28N between 120W-128W Thu night and Fri behind the aforementioned cold front. $$ Hagen