000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010739 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure surging down eastern Mexico behind a cold front northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region combined with lower pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to result in a tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly winds are forecast to continue through early this morning. Seas are currently up to 13 ft. After winds diminish below gale force, strong northerly winds will continue through the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 06N90W to 03N105W. The ITCZ extends from 03N107W to 08N120W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 115W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 22N between 120W and 129W, and also from 03N to 08N between 123W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Moderate NW-N winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes northward, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere from near Cabo Corrientes northward, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere offshore of southern Mexico, west of the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate NW-N winds over the waters from near Cabo Corrientes northward will diminish to gentle through the day. Long period NW swell west of Baja California will subside through the day. Another set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, with fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in fresh northerly swell are occurring well offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night this week and into the weekend across the Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama today, increasing to fresh to strong tonight, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist today into this evening over the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is located just north of the area with a surface ridge extending across the northern waters. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 127W and 132W. An upper-level trough axis is along 130W from 05N to 25N. A couple of surface troughs are noted nearby, one from 18N123W to 13N123W, and the other just to the south from 11N122W to 07N127W. Associated convection is described above in the ITCZ section. Fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W, with the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters. A large area of seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell covers the waters north of roughly west of 118W, with 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 106W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 106W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the northern part of the region through today. The area of fresh trades will gradually diminish through Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will subside somewhat today and tonight from the ITCZ to 22N between 117W and 130W. A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W later today. The front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W which will arrive ahead of the front this morning. By the end of the week, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in W swell. $$ Lewitsky