000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010227 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly winds are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Seas around 13 to 15 ft will peak through this evening. After winds diminish below gale force Tue afternoon, strong northerly winds will continue through the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N78W to 08N87W to 03N106W. The ITCZ extends from 06N108W to 07N117W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 10N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 117W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 16N between 120W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds are over the Gulf of California with seas 3-5 ft. Gentle NW winds prevail off Baja California. Seas west of Baja California are 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate tonight and to gentle on Tue. Long period NW swell west of Baja California will subside late tonight into Tue. Another set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, with fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Thu night into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in fresh northerly swell are occurring well offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night this week and into the weekend across the Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will persist into Tue over the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is located just north of the area. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure across the northern waters. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 126W and 134W. An upper-level trough axis is along 129W from 05N to 26N. A surface trough is noted from 15N118W to 09N121W. Associated convection is described above in the ITCZ section. Fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W, with the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, except near the surface ridge over the northern part of the area. A large area of seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell covers the waters north of roughly 02N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 100W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the northern part of the region through Tue. Fresh trades will continue through tonight across much of the area from the ITCZ to around 22N, and west of 125W, with winds diminishing over the area Tue into Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will begin to subside tonight. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 130W. A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W by Tue. By the end of the week, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in W swell. $$ Lewitsky