000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282136
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging
down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower
pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data from 28/1627 UTC suggest that N winds of up to about 
35 kt are occurring north of 14.5N between 94.5W and 95W. Gale
force northerly winds are forecast to continue through early 
Tue morning. Seas around 14 to 15 ft will peak now through this
evening. After winds diminish below gale force late Tue morning,
strong northerly winds will continue through the end of the 
week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 06N77W
to 05N99W. The ITCZ extends from 05N99W to 07N129W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 
118W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. Fresh NW winds
are over the Gulf of California with seas 3-5 ft. Gentle NW winds
prevail off Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate NW to
N winds off Baja California Sur. Seas west of Baja California are
6-8 ft in W to NW swell. Light to gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh NW 
winds over the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate
tonight and to gentle on Tue. Long period NW swell west of Baja 
California will subside late tonight into Tue. Another set of NW
swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the end
of the week. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds will develop 
west of Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure 
builds behind a dying cold front. Moderate or weaker winds are 
forecast elsewhere through Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate northerly winds are noted in the Gulf 
of Panama. Seas of 6-9 ft in northerly swell are occurring well 
offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event occurring in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh 
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night 
through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then 
moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas 
of 6 to 9 ft will persist into Tue over the waters offshore 
Guatemala due to N swell from the gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1030 mb high pressure is located just north of the area near
32N129W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure to
26N140W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the ridge
axis. An upper-level trough axis is along 129W from 05N-26N. 
Associated convection is described above in the ITCZ section. 
Fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 21N and west of
125W, with the pressure gradient between the troughing and 
ridging in place. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the 
open waters, except near the surface ridge over the northern part
of the area. A large area of seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell covers 
the waters north of roughly 02N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft
in mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 105W, and 4 to 6 ft east of
105W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region through Tue. Fresh trades will
continue through tonight across much of the area from the ITCZ 
to around 21N, and west of 125W, with winds diminishing over the
area Tue into Wed. Long period NW swell over the area will begin
to subside tonight. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to
continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 130W.
A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of
30N140W by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to 
28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. 
Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the 
front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W 
by Tue. By the end of the week, low pressure west of the area may
extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly 
winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with
building seas in W swell.

$$
Hagen