000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280738 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are forecast to peak around 40 kt until around sunrise, and again late tonight into early Tue. Seas will peak around 12 to 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Tue morning with fresh to strong northerly winds continuing through the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 05N90W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 08N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 115W and 132W, and from 10N to 13N between 112W and 114W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 113W and 123W which is mostly due to an upper-level trough rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is centered northwest of the area. This high combined with troughing across the NW part of Mexico, including the Baja California Peninsula, is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across most of the Gulf of California, spilling out of the entrance. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the central and southern Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N and west of 105W across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail east of 105W and west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas mainly in NW swell. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through the rest of the pre-dawn hours before gradually diminishing through tonight. Long period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California this morning. Another set of NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the end of the week. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will develop west of Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure builds behind a dying cold front, locally strong north of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE offshore winds are currently across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama and near the tip of the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds are noted offshore of northern Ecuador to 250 nm. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build to 6 to 9 ft by early Mon and persist into Tue over the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is noted north of the area. A surface trough is noted just north of the ITCZ from 11N120W to 17N118W. Associated convection is described above. Mainly moderate to fresh trades are noted north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 120W, with the pressure gradient between the troughing and ridging in place. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, except gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 28N between 128W and 134W near the high center north of the area. A large area of seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell covers the waters north of roughly 04N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft mainly NW swell elsewhere west of 115W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 115W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to around 22N, and west of 117W through early today. Long period NW swell will continue to spread over most of the area through early today, keeping 8 to 11 ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 15N between 120W and 125W. A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W by Tue. By the end of the week, low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest corner of our area, along with building seas in SW swell. $$ Lewitsky