000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is surging
down eastern Mexico behind a cold front north of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. This high pressure combined with lower
pressures south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Gale force northerly 
winds have commenced in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, and
are forecast to peak around 40 kt late tonight into early Mon, 
and again late Mon night into early Tue. Seas will peak around 12
to 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds are forecast to 
diminish below gale force by late Tue morning with fresh to 
strong northerly winds continuing through the end of the week. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04N79W
to 08N89W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 05N110W 
to 07N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 116W and 136W.
Similar convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 113W and 122W
which is mostly due to an upper-level trough rather than due to 
the proximity of the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure is centered northwest of the area. This high
combined with troughing across the NW part of Mexico, including
the Baja California Peninsula, is supporting fresh to strong NW
winds across most of the Gulf of California, spilling out of the
entrance. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the central and southern
Gulf of California. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere north
of 17N and west of 103W across the offshore waters of Mexico,
along with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Light to gentle variable
winds prevail east of 103W and west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas mainly in NW swell.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to 
strong NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of 
California will continue through tonight before gradually 
diminishing Mon into Mon night. Long period NW swell will reach 
the waters west of Baja California this evening. Another set of 
NW swell is forecast to arrive across the same area towards the 
end of the week. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere 
through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will develop west of 
Baja California by the end of the week as high pressure builds 
behind a dying cold front, locally strong north of Punta 
Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE offshore winds are currently across the Gulf
of Papagayo region along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama and near the tip
of the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds are noted offshore
of northern Ecuador to 250 nm. Mainly light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh 
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night 
through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night, then 
moderate thereafter. Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas 
will build to 6 to 9 ft by early Mon and persist into Tue over 
the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from a gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is noted north of the area. A surface trough is
noted just north of the ITCZ from 16N118W to 10N120W. Associated
convection is described above. Mainly moderate to fresh trades
are noted north of the ITCZ to about 24N with the pressure
gradient between the troughing and ridging in place. Mainly
moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, except light
to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 28N between 128W and 135W
near the high center north of the area. A large area of seas of 8
ft or greater in NW swell covers the waters north of roughly 05N
and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft mainly NW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong
trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of
117W through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to 
spread over most of the area through early Mon, keeping 8 to 11 
ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Expect 
enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from 
the ITCZ to 15N between 120W and 125W. A cold front is forecast 
to enter the area, passing southeast of 30N140W by late Tue. The
front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 
30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE 
winds are forecast behind the front, along with reinforcing NW
swell up to 12 ft near 30N140W by Tue. By the end of the week,
low pressure west of the area may extend a warm front across 140W
with fresh to strong easterly winds north of it in the northwest
corner of our area, along with building seas in SW swell.

$$
Lewitsky