000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Near gale force N winds are forecast to increase to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening and last through early Tue morning with seas building to 14-15 ft over the area. Strong to near gale force N winds will then continue Tue through Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N77W to 07N90W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 05N107W to 07N121W, then continues W of a surface trough from 07N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 112W and 124W. This is more due to an upper-level trough rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show strong NW winds covering the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California, to the south of Tiburon Island, while fresh NW winds are likely occurring over the N Gulf. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of Baja California. Moderate N winds are likely occurring near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, except for near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5-7 ft in the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft N of Tiburon Island. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California, as moderate NW swell approaches from the west. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere, except 7-9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through tonight before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas of 6-7 ft will continue S of Tiburon Island through tonight. Moderate N winds will prevail west of Baja California through Mon. Long period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California this evening, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail offshore through Mon night, before subsiding Tue. Light to gentle winds are expected everywhere Tue through Wed night, with the exception of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase offshore Baja California late this week as a cold front approaches the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh NE gap winds are currently occurring over the region offshore Papagayo. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo region and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night this week across the Papagayo region. Fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through Tue night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. Seas will increase to 6-9 ft early Mon and persist into Tue over the waters offshore Guatemala due to N swell from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27N near the high pressure. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh to locally strong trades from the ITCZ to 22N between 118W-140W. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area. Seas of 8-11 ft are also occurring within the gentle to moderate wind area farther north, due to significant NW swell, which covers the area north of 10N and west of 118W. Seas are 6-8 ft are elsewhere east of 118W, and west of 118W south of 07N. A sharp upper-level trough extends from 30N128W to 05N135W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 15N between 112W and 124W. Strong wind gusts are possible in the strong convection. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the northern part of the region, maintaining fresh to locally strong trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of 117W through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to spread over most of the area through early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Expect enhanced showers and thunderstorms to continue through Tue from the ITCZ to 15N between 120W-125W. A cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing SE of 30N140W by late Tue. The front will extend from 30N135W to 28N140W early Wed, and from 30N127W to 26N140W by early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are forecast behind the front. $$ Hagen