000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N winds are forecast to increase to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening and last through Mon night with seas building to 14 ft over the area. Near gale force N winds will then continue Tue through Wed, with gale force winds possible again Wed night into Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 06N77W to 04N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 06N110W to 07N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 100 NM N of the ITCZ from 09N to 19N between 115W and 125W. This is more due to an upper-level trough rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N126W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows moderate N winds to the west of Baja California and fresh N winds in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW winds are likely occurring in the southern and central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state of Oaxaca. Strong to near gale force N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas west of Baja California are 4-6 ft. Seas of 5-6 ft are over the southern Gulf of California and over the entrance to the Gulf, while 3-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere over the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft are elsewhere, except up to 9 ft offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through Sun night before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas will build to 6-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of Baja California, to the south of El Rosario, through Sun. Long period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Sun night, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail offshore through Mon night, before subsiding Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds are currently occurring over the region offshore Papagayo. Moderate to fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere, except 4-6 offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to swell from the gap events occurring in Tehuantepec and Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse each night across the Papagayo region through late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into the middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 21N to 29N in association with the ridge axis near 32N126W. An area of fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted ahead of a nearby cold front N of the 30N and W of the ridge near 136W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades from the ITCZ to 21N between 118W-140W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, as confirmed by recent satellite altimeter data. A set of NW swell that crossed 130W early this evening. Seas north of 21N and west of 135W have recently built to 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A broad area of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper- level trough, is producing showers from 06N to 16N between 121W and 135W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of 117W through Sun night. The new set of long period NW swell over the western part of the area will continue to spread over most of the area through early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the area, passing SE of 30N140W around the middle of next week. $$ Torres