000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252141
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to minimal gale force after midnight
tonight. Winds will diminish slightly to near gale force by late
Sat morning. Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft early Sat
morning. Strong to near gale force N winds will then continue
through Sun. N winds are forecast to increase to gale force again
for Sunday evening through Mon night. Strong N winds will then
continue Tue through at least Wed night. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
07N77.5W to 05N85W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 
05N108W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 05N115W to 
07N127W to 07N140W. A surface trough extending from 06N111W to 
02N115W splits the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 11N between 130W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
gales forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing
mainly moderate N winds to the west of the entire peninsula. 
Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh NW winds in the southern 
and central Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are likely
occurring in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in
the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state of Oaxaca.
Strong N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, north of 
15N. Recent altimeter data from 25/1700 UTC shows waves of 5-7 
ft offshore the state of Sinaloa and near the entrance to the 
Gulf of California. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California and 
4-6 ft in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 
3-4 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5 ft 
elsewhere, except up to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the 
Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong by Sat. 
Those winds will prevail through the weekend there. Seas will 
build to 5-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate 
to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of 
Baja California through Sun. Long period NW swell will reach the
waters west of Baja California late Sun night into Mon, with seas
as high as 8-9 ft well offshore through Mon night, before
subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
northern Caribbean Sea continues to combine with a trough over 
the E equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh
to strong NE gap winds over the region offshore Papagayo. Fresh N
winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in 
the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. 
Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across 
the Papagayo region each night into the middle of next week as 
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will pulse 
to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama at night 
through Sat night, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into 
the middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb is located near 33N130W, with a broad
ridge extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient 
between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is 
producing fresh to locally strong trades from the ITCZ to 23N 
between 120W-140W, as confirmed by recent ASCAT satellite wind
data. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, based on recent satellite
altimeter data. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A broad area 
of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence, to the east
of an upper-level trough, is noted from 08N-22N between 113W-
132W. Scattered showers are possible within this area.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much 
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W through Sun. A
new set of long period NW swell will move into the western part 
of the area by Sat, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area 
north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon.

$$
Hagen