000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N78W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 04N109W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 04N115W to 07N122W to 08N140W. A surface trough extending from 06N109W to 03N112W splits the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 06.5N between 77W and 79W and from 07N to 08N between 134.5W and 136.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing mainly moderate N winds to the west of the entire peninsula. Fresh NW winds are present in the southern and central Gulf of California, with moderate winds in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state of Oaxaca. Strong N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, north of 14.5N. Recent altimeter data from 25/1230 UTC shows waves as high as 7 ft offshore the state of Sinaloa and near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California and 4-6 ft in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except up to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong tonight. Those winds will prevail through the weekend there. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of Baja California through Sun. Strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to near gale force tonight. N winds there will remain strong to near gale force through Sun before increasing to gale force by Sun evening. The gales should continue through Mon night, with seas up to 13 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Weakening high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea continues to combine with a trough over the E equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere. For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the Papagayo region each night into early next week as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama at night through Sat night, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into early next week. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1029 mb is located near 35N129W, with a ridge extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh trades from the ITCZ to 23N between 117W-140W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone based on altimeter data. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A surface trough extends from 13N117W to 10N118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N between 116.5W and 119.5W. A broad area of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper- level trough, is noted from 10N-22N between 115W-130W. Scattered showers are possible within this area. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W over the next couple of days. Convection N of the ITCZ between about 114W and 125W associated with a surface trough will continue through the weekend. A new set of long period NW swell will move into the western part of the area by Sat, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ Hagen