000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located over northern Colombia near 09.5N75W to 04N88W. The ITCZ continues from 04N88W to 05N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 2.5N to 5.5N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. Similar convective activity is seen from 06N to 09N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and trough along the W coast of Mexico supports fresh to strong NW to n winds across the waters S of Punta Eugenia. Northerly swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. In the central Gulf of California fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail with seas of up to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh far N portions. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S of the Tiburon Basin through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Baja offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia through late this morning, while winds diminish to moderate to the north. Seas in excess of 8 ft will spread southward across the area between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas through this evening and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds and modest seas will prevail across the Baja offshores through Sun. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri, producing strong N winds. Winds there will pulse through Sun before increasing to minimal gale force Sun night through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea continues to combine with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo region each night through Sun night as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1028 mb is located near 31N135W and has a ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-20N west of 120W, and moderate NE winds elsewhere W of 110W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone. The zone of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west- central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure center persists just N of the forecast waters. Northerly swell will continue to affect the NE waters through late today. A middle to upper level trough is forecast to sink into the tropics along 125W by Sat, and will support active convection there N of the ITCZ between about 118W and 128W through the weekend. Strong NE trades can also be expected there. New NW swell will reach the western part of the forecast region over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ GR