000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1008 mb low pres located over northern Colombia near 09.5N75W to 04N79W to 05.5N89W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N89W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N from 127-140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 117.5W and 124.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A cold front continues moving SE across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California tonight, extending from NW Mexico across the central Gulf of California and across central portions of the Baja Peninsula and exits into the Pacific just S of San Juanico, where it becomes ill defined. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted across the Gulf, while strong NW to winds to near 30 kt continue to spill into far N portions of the Gulf to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are assumed to have built to 5-8 ft in recent hours. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja, fresh to strong NNW winds have built along the entire length of the peninsula, with strongest winds within 60 nm of the coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell from Punta Eugenia northward and 6-8 ft southward to 20N. Further S, moderate to fresh N winds prevail to offshore of Manzanillo, except fresh to strong across the waters surrounding Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail there. Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh far N portions. Seas will build 5-8 ft S of the Tiburon Basin today through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Baja offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia through late this morning, while winds diminish to moderate to the north. Seas associated with this front in excess of 8 ft will spread southward across the area between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas through Thu evening and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds and modest seas will prevail across the Baja offshores through Sun. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri, producing strong N winds. Winds there will pulse through Sun before increasing to minimal gale force Sun night through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea continues to combine with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo region each night through Sun night as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1030 mb is located near 34N134W and has a ridge extending SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-23N west of 120W, and moderate NE winds elsewhere W of 110W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone. The zone of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west- central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure center persists just N of the forecast waters. Northerly swell will continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. An middle to upper level trough is forecast to sink into the tropics along 125W by Sat, and will support active convection there N of the ITCZ between about 118W and 128W through the weekend. Strong NE trades can also be expected there. New NW swell will reach the western part of the forecast region over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ Stripling