000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 10N75W to 05N80W. The ITCZ extends from 06N88W to 
04N110W to 07N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted near 04N78W, and within 
about 90 nm N of the ITCZ W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds are noted S of the front to 29N
while fresh to strong NW winds follow the front. Gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf
of California. Seas are 5-8 ft in the northern part of the Gulf 
and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds and 
seas of 8 to 11 ft in N swell are noted over the offshore waters
of northern Baja California, particularly N of 28N and E of 
125W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are building across the 
Baja California offshore waters S of 28N with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds are near Cabo Corrientes, spilling S 
along the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas of 4-6 ft. 

Strong W to NW winds are expected across the northern Gulf of 
California on either side of the cold front through tonight, with
seas of 6-8 ft. The fresh to strong winds off Baja California 
Norte will spread south affecting the entire Baja California 
offshore waters by tonight. These winds will dominate mainly the 
waters S of Punta Eugenia by Thu morning. Seas associated with
the swell event currently propagating across the waters N of
Punta Eugenia will spread southward across the area between Cabo
San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight and Thu while subsiding. 
Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin 
Fri night, with strong N winds. Winds are forecast to increase to
minimal gale force Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
06N. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of
the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Latest volcanic ash advisory for the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala 
indicates that a volcanic ash cloud is observed over 90 nm WNW 
of the summit, remaining over land and likely crossing the 
Guatemala/Mexico border. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo
region each night through Sun night as high pressure remains N of
the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh across
the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Light to gentle
winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb located near 33N137W has a ridge extending
SE beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is combining with
lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades 
mainly from 07N-14N west of 130W, and from 10N-16N between 115W-
130W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone.

An area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west-
central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure 
center persists just N of the forecast waters. A northerly swell
event will continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. 
The next swell event will reach the western part of the forecast
region over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the
area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night.

$$
GR