000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 06N83W. The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 04N110W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near 05N78W, and within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with strong high pressure N of the area to promote fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of an approaching cold front entering Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the central and southern Gulf. Seas are 5-8 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted N of 28N between 116W and 127W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are building across the Baja California offshore waters S of 28N with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are near Cabo Corrientes, spilling S along the offshore waters of of Jalisco with seas of 5-7 ft. Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California through tonight, with seas to 8 ft. A cold front moving into Baja California Norte will reach the northern Gulf of California this afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front and spread the full length of the Gulf late on Thu. The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf through Sun. Seas will be 6-8 ft across the southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas will spread across the offshore waters of Baja California behind the approaching cold front through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong N winds. Winds are forecast to increase to near gale force by late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 06N. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere off western Panama and southern Costa Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are occurring off Colombia and Ecuador. Latest volcanic ash advisory for the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala indicates that the plume of volcanic ash will continue to move westward over land. Fresh NE gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Seas to 7 ft generated across the offshore Papagayo area will continue to propagate into the outer offshore waters of El Salvador today. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N137W has a ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-14N west of 130W, and from 10N-18N between 115W- 130W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone south of 15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W-130W tonight through Sat. A northerly swell event will continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. The next swell event will reach the western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ GR