000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74.5W to 06N83W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N91W to 04N107W to 08N124W to beyond 07.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the Colombian coast from 01N to 06.5N E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 08N between 123W-140W, and from 13N to 15.5N between 114W-119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with strong high pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of an approaching cold front entering Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are building across the Baja California offshore waters S of 30N, while fresh to strong westerly winds are occurring offshore of Baja Norte, just ahead of the cold front. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring along the Mexican coast from near Mazatlan to the Cabo Corrientes area. Light to gentle westerly winds are occurring from Manzanillo extending SE to the Guatemala border. Seas are 5-7 ft across the Pacific waters, except 7-8 ft off Baja Norte. Seas are 4-7 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf. Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California overnight through midday Wed, with seas building to 8 ft late tonight into early Wed. A cold front moving into Baja Norte tonight will reach the northern Gulf of California by Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front and spread the full length of the Gulf on Thu. The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf through Sun, in the wake of the front. Seas will build up to 8 ft in the northern Gulf by midday Wed, and will be 6-8 ft across the southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas will spread across the offshore waters of Baja California behind the approaching cold front Wed through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong N winds. N winds will increase to near gale force by late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 06N. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere off western Panama and southern Costa Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are occurring off Colombia and Ecuador. Evening satellite imagery showed two emissions of volcanic ash from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala. An ash cloud aloft reach the Pacific coast at 0100 UTC between El Paredon and San Jose Rama Blanca, and then extended SW and offshore about 30 nm. The ash cloud has since drifted westward and dissipated. Additional ash emissions from Fuego have occurred in the past few hours but are moving westward and remaining over land. Fresh NE gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Seas to 7 ft generated across the offshore Papagayo area are forecast to propagate into the outer offshore waters of El Salvador overnight and subside Wed. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through 30N133W southeastward to 19N109W. This ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-22N west of 125W, and from 08N-18N between 115W- 125W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone south of 15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is south of the ridge and extends from 11N-15N along 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 13N TO 15.5N between 114W and 119W. Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak around 8-10 ft late Thu through Sat. New NW swell will reach the western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ Stripling