000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230335 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74W to 02N80W. The ITCZ extends from 05N87W to 04.5N114W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the Colombian coast from 01.5N to 06N E of 79.5W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06.5N to 08.5N between 126W-140W, and from 12N to 15.5N between 113W-121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with strong high pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, as confirmed by afternoon ASCAT data. Gentle winds prevail across the central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring along the Mexican coast from near Mazatlan to the Cabo Corrientes area. Light to gentle westerly winds are occurring from Manzanillo extending SE to the Guatemala border. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Pacific waters, except 7-8 ft off Baja Norte. Seas are 3-4 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft in the southern Gulf. Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California tonight through midday Wed, with seas building to 7 ft late tonight into early Wed. A cold front moving across southern California tonight will reach the northern Gulf of California by Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front and spread the full length of the Gulf on Thu. The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf through Sun, in the wake of the front. Seas will build up to 8 ft in the northern Gulf by midday Wed, and will be 6-8 ft across the southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. NW swell off Baja California Norte is slowly subsiding this evening, with seas currently 6-8 ft. However, expect fresh to strong NW winds and building seas west of Baja California behind the cold front Wed through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong N winds. N winds will increase to near gale force by late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 06N, both of which were confirmed by afternoon ASCAT data. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region. Recent altimeter data showed 5-7 ft seas south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are likely occurring elsewhere off western Panama and southern Costa Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are occurring off Colombia and Ecuador. Evening satellite imagery showed two emissions of volcanic ash from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala. An ash cloud aloft reach the Pacific coast at 0100 UTC between El Paredon and San Jose Rama Blanca, and then extended SW and offshore about 30 nm. The ash cloud has since become less well defined and is drifting westward, and remains within 30 nm of the coast. Mariners across the area should be alert for falling ash. Fresh to strong NE gap winds will pulse mainly at night across the Papagayo region through Thu night, then diminish slightly Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Large seas generated across the offshore Papagayo area are forecast to propagate into the outer offshore waters of El Salvador through this evening and subside tonight. Moderate S winds off Ecuador should diminish to gentle this evening. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through 30N134W southeastward to 19N108W. This ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-24N west of 130W, and from 08N-17N between 115W- 130W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone south of 15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is south of the ridge and extends from 15N119W to 11N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N TO 15.5N between 113W and 121W. Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak around 8-10 ft late Thu through Sat. New NW swell will reach the western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun night. $$ Stripling