000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N78W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 132W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin along with high pressure well northwest of our waters is promoting fresh to strong SW to W winds over the central and N Gulf of California, but only moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Scatterometer passes at 17Z and 18Z indicated strong NW winds in the N Gulf from 29N-31. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Pacific waters, 3-5 ft in the N and central Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft in the S Gulf. In the forecast, fresh to near gale SW to W winds are expected to continue across portions of central and N Gulf of California through Wed morning. By Wed afternoon, a cold front should reach the N Gulf of California and force fresh to strong NW winds across the entire Gulf on Thu through Sat with seas to reach up to 8 ft. Large swell generated by strong winds off California are forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight into Tue. Beginning Wed, fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are expected offshore Baja California Norte and continue progressing southward to offshore of Baja California Sur by Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the entire Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuanteper N gap wind event should begin Fri night and may reach near gale on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the Caribbean Sea along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters is inducing fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama this afternoon. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Papagayo region, 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. In the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Wed morning, then diminishing to moderate to fresh through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Tue night, before diminishing to moderate to fresh through at least Sat night. Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to continue to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge of high pressure extends from 30N125W southeastward to 14N98W. This along with lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-15N west of 117W. Seas peak at 8-10 ft within the moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In the forecast, winds will change little through Wed. On Thu through Sat, building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades up to strong. Beginning tonight, N large swell will reach our 30N border and will gradually move southward and combine with the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W by Thu and Fri. Seas should peak around 8-10 ft Fri and Sat. $$ Landsea