000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 04N80W to 03.5N95W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N95W to 05N112W, then resumes from 06.5N118W to 07.5N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of ITCZ W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong gap winds continue tonight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and extend offshore in a relatively narrow plume to near 14.5N. Seas are 7-8 ft across the immediate Gulf. However, merging NW, NE and E swell across the outer offshore waters are maintaining seas of 7-8 ft. Winds will diminish through Mon morning as high pressure continues to weaken across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will then diminish to below 20 kt Mon evening. Favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail across Tehuantepec throughout the week. A middle level disturbance is moving eastward across the Baja offshore waters tonight, and will continue across the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California today. This has influenced the surface winds across the offshore waters tonight, with overnight ASCAT winds depicting gentle NW winds. A broad ridge centered well NW of the area will build modestly across the offshore waters today to produce moderate NW winds across the offshore waters. Meanwhile, inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across south and central portions, while fresh to locally strong SW winds have developed in recent hours across N portions, and are producing a zone of strong gap winds and quickly building seas. Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W will develop across the north and central parts of the Gulf of California Mon with strong gusty gap winds producing rough seas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are then expected to prevail through Tue night, with strong to near gale force SW gap winds expected across N portions late Tue and Tue night. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California Norte as a cold front or frontal trough moves across the area. Seas could reach 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed and 7 to 9 ft across Baja Norte offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to near 10N91W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail downwind of Papagayo, 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Mon night as a strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic and Caribbean. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, and again Mon night, with seas building 8-9 ft downstream of the Papagayo region to about 90W-91W. Then, fresh to strong winds of 20-25 kt will prevail across the Papagayo area through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through Mon night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is producing an area of moderate to fresh trades over the open waters N of the ITCZ to about 19N and W of 115W. Seas in the trade wind area are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, S of 18N and W of 110W seas are 7-9 ft also in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to about 15N and west of 120W over the next couple of days. Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 8-9 ft. The aerial extent of the trade winds will increase by Wed as a strong high pressure settles N of area. By that time, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are forecast to cover the waters from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. $$ Stripling