000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern 
Colombia near 10N74W to 03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W 
to 06N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 134W and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Winds have diminished below gale force across the Tehuantepec
region. So, the decision was made to drop the Gale Warning.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Mon before falling below 20 kt Mon afternoon.
Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft on Mon. Favorable marine
conditions are expected to prevail across Tehuantepec throughout
the week.

A broad ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicate
light and variable winds over the central and south parts of the
Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Seas are
generally 1 to 3 ft.

Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly
winds will prevail across the north and central parts of the 
Gulf of California through Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong NW winds and building seas are expected late Tue through 
Wed offshore Baja California Norte, while strong SW to W winds 
develop across the northern Gulf of California as a cold front or
frontal trough moves across the area. Seas could reach 8 ft in 
the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N91W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds 
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area except 8
to 10 ft downwind of Papagayo. 

A strong gap wind event is expected across the Papagayo region 
through Mon night as a strong high pressure currently located 
over the Mid-Atlantic states slides into the western Atlantic. 
The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, and 
again Mon night, with seas building 8-10 ft downstream of the 
Papagayo region to about 90W-91W. Then, fresh to strong winds of
20-25 kt will prevail across the Papagayo area through Wed night.
Fresh to locally strong N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf 
of Panama each night through Mon night, with seas building to 7 
ft. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas
are forecast to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador through Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is 
producing an area of fresh to locally strong trades over the 
open waters N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 110W based on 
latest satellite derived wind data. Seas in the trade wind area 
are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, 
from 05N to 16N and W of 122W seas are 7-9 ft also in mixed long
period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue north of the 
ITCZ to about 15N and west of 125W over the next couple of days.
Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 8-9 ft. The 
aerial extent of the trade winds will increase by Wed as a strong
high pressure settles N of area. By that time, fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds and building seas are forecast to cover the
waters from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. 

$$
GR