000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190310
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will 
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec 
region this evening through Sun morning. Strong northerly winds 
spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon hours have
increased to gale force of 30-35 kt this evening, and extend
offshore to near 14.5N. Winds will further increase to 35-40 kt 
on Sat, with seas building to 12 ft. Then, winds are forecast to 
diminish below gale force by midday Sun with seas subsiding to 
8-10 ft. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:

https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 10N75.5W to 04N95W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N95W to 06N126W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07.5N E of 88W 
to coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details.  

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, producing moderate northerly winds. Long period NW 
swell continues to affect the region with seas of 5-8 ft N of 
Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, including the entrance to
the Gulf of California. High pressure over the Great Basin of 
the USA supports moderate to fresh northerly across the Gulf of 
California, where seas are generally 4 to 5 ft.

Long period NW swell will continue across the Baja California 
offshores through Sat with seas gradually subsiding. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are expected across the Gulf of California through
Sat becoming light and variable on Sun. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will occur off Cabo Corrientes through tonight. Fresh to 
strong winds and building seas are possible early next week 
offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of 
California as a cold front moves into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore the 
Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds 
prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds remain 
elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of 
Colombia, described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

Fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region
at night through early next week. The strongest winds are 
expected Sat night, and again Sun night, with seas building to 
10 ft offshore Papagayo. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with strong winds and 7 ft 
seas possible there Sat night. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec
and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador during the upcoming 
weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is centered well north of the 
area with a ridge extending SE beyond the Revillagigedo Islands 
and north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and
ITCZ is producing an area of fresh to strong trades over the 
open waters N of the ITCZ to 19N and W of 120W. Seas in this 
area are 9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. 
Elsewhere, N of 04N and W of 114W seas are 8-10 ft in mixed long
period NW swell and NE wind waves. 

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple 
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 120 
through Sun. Seas generated by strong winds off California are 
forecast to reach the north-central waters Mon night into Tue. 
Seas heights of 8-9 ft are expected to affect the waters N of 27N
between 116W-128W by Tue morning.

$$
Stripling