000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains will support a
gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region this evening through
Sun morning. Strong northerly winds will spill across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec during the afternoon hours, reaching minimal gale 
force of 30-35 kt by this evening. Winds will further increase 
to 35-40 kt on Sat, with seas building to 12 ft. Then, winds are 
forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun afternoon with seas 
subsiding to 8-10 ft. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website:

https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 10N86W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N100W to 07N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N E of 80W to 
coast of Colombia. Similar convection is observed from 06N-10N W
of 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details.  

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds. Long period
NW swell continues to affect the region with seas of 5-8 ft N of
Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, including the entrance to
the Gulf of California. High pressure over the Great Basin of the 
USA supports moderate to fresh northerly across the Gulf of 
California.

Long period NW swell will continue across the Baja California 
offshores through Sat with seas gradually subsiding. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are expected across the Gulf of California through
Sat becoming light and variable on Sun. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will occur off Cabo Corrientes through tonight. Fresh to 
strong winds and building seas are possible early next week 
offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of 
California as a cold front moves into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore the 
Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds 
prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds remain 
elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of 
Colombia, described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

Fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region
at night through early next week. The strongest winds are 
expected Sat night, and again Sun night, with seas building to 
10 ft offshore Papagayo. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with strong winds and 7 ft 
seas possible there Sat night. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec
and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador during the upcoming 
weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb is centered well north of the 
area with a ridge extending SE beyond the Revillagigedo Islands 
and north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and
ITCZ is producing an area of fresh to strong trades over the 
open waters N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Seas in this area
are 9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, N
of 06N and W of 120W seas are 8-10 ft in mixed long period NW
swell and NE wind-waves. Two altimeter passes confirmed the
presence of these sea heights.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 130W over the next couple
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 120
through Sun. Seas generated by strong winds off California are  
forecast to reach the north-central waters Mon night into Tue. 
Seas heights of 8-9 ft are expected to affect the waters N of 
27N between 116W-128W by Tue morning.

$$
GR/MT