000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162018
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 07N79W to to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from
05N96W to 08N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 79W to 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is weakening and moving E
away from the area, thus northerly gap winds have diminished
below gale level in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds and 
seas of up to 8 ft will persist this evening, then diminish 
overnight.

Outside of Tehuantepec, a weak cold front is slowly pushing 
southward across central Baja California and Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing W of Baja California as
well as the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted 
across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Seas of up to 8 ft are
occurring W of Baja California Norte, with 3 to 6 ft seas
elsewhere across the Mexican offshores. 

For the forecast, the cold front pushing across Baja California 
and the Gulf of California will dissipate tonight. Fresh winds 
in the Gulf of California and the Baja California offshores will
also diminish tonight. Seas in the northern Gulf of California 
will subside later today. Swell across the Baja California 
offshores will continue through Wed night and subside by Thu 
night. Fresh winds will persist off Cabo Corrientes Thu and Fri.
Gales may develop Fri night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with 
seas 8-9 ft. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing in the Gulf of
Panama with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle SW to W winds remain 
elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Thu. Seas will drop below 8 ft by this 
afternoon. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama into Thu 
night. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a 
ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. 

Fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters. Northerly swell of
8 to 10 ft is moving into the northern forecast waters near and 
W of Guadalupe Island, N of 26N between 115W and 128W. Strong 
winds W of 135W are being caused by the strong pressure gradient
from the high pressure north of the area and the ITCZ. Seas are 
moving eastward into the area from the strong winds, ranging from
8-10 ft, N of 10N and W of 130W. Seas are 4-7 ft across the rest
of the open waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over western
waters W of 135W through Thu. Swell will continue to propagate 
eastward to 122W and range from 8-10 ft. Seas will begin to 
subside by Fri night and drop below 8 ft Sun night. Seas ranging
8-10 ft W of Baja California will continue to spread southward 
and eventually merge with the aforementioned swell tonight.

$$
KONARIK