000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162000
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 07N79W to to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from
05N96W to 08N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 79W to 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is weakening and moving E
away from the area, thus northerly gap winds have diminished
below gale level in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds and 
seas of up to 8 ft will persist this evening, then diminish 
overnight.

Outside of Tehuantepec, a weak cold front is slowly pushing 
southward across central Baja California and Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing W of Baja California as
well as the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted 
across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Seas of up to 8 ft are
occurring W of Baja California Norte, with 3 to 6 ft seas
elsewhere across the Mexican offshores. 

For the forecast, 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with 
seas 8-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are 
prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 7 ft. Light to 
gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft.
Convection previously offshore the Colombian coast and in the
Gulf of Panama has diminished.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Thu morning. Seas will drop below 8 ft by this
afternoon. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight 
and Thu night. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec moving across 
the El Salvador and Guatemala will subside by early this morning.
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a 
ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters.
Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the northern 
forecast waters near and W of Guadalupe Island, N of 26N between
115W and 128W. Strong winds along 140W are being caused by the 
strong pressure gradient from the high pressure north of the area
and the ITCZ. Seas are moving eastward into the area from the 
strong winds, ranging from 8-9 ft, N of 12N and W of 135W. Seas 
are 4-7 ft across the rest of the open waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will spread across the 
western waters W of 135W through Thu. Swell will continue to 
propagate eastward to 122W and range 8-10 ft. Seas will begin to
subside by Fri and drop below 8 ft Sun. Seas ranging 8-10 ft W of
Baja California will continue to spread southward and eventually
merge with the aforementioned swell today.

$$
KONARIK