000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152013
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to force northerly gale-force gap winds to
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, with seas of
up to 14 ft. As the high moves east, winds will diminish Wed,
with seas gradually diminishing into Wed night. Refer to the NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 07N84W
to 03N94W. The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 07N117W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to
07N between 108W and 113W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Outside of Tehuantepec, moderate winds are noted off the 
northern coast of Baja California with light to gentle winds 
across the Baja California Sur offshores. Fresh winds have 
developed in the northern Gulf of California, with light to 
gentle winds in the remainder of the Gulf of California and the 
Mexican offshores. Seas to 8 ft, generated by the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind, are moving into the Guerrero offshores. 
Seas ranging from 3-6 ft are noted across the Mexico offshores 
with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the swell moving into the Guerrero offshores 
will subside by this evening. A cold front is expected to push 
southward across Baja California and the Gulf of California today
and dissipate by Wed. Strong winds will develop in the northern 
Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California this afternoon
and continue through tonight. Seas could reach 8 ft in the 
northern Gulf tonight with the highest winds. Fresh winds will 
persist off Cabo Corrientes Thu and Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with 
seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing in the Gulf
of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle SW to W winds 
remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft. Convection that had been
present in the Gulf of Panama and near southern Costa Rica has
diminished.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Wed night. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Panama tonight and Wed night. Fresh winds across the El Salvador
and Guatemala offshores will diminish later today with the swell
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec subsiding by tonight. Light to 
gentle winds will remain elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge 
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters, along with seas
of 5-7 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, a surface trough west of the area will approach
the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and this trough will bring fresh to strong winds near
140W by tonight and continue through Thu. Seas are expected to
range 8-10 ft and spread eastward to 122W by late this week. Seas
will subside later in the weekend. A weak cold front is expected
to drop southward across the Baja California offshores and the 
open waters of the Pacific. This will bring seas 8-10 ft this
evening and eventually merge with the aforementioned swell by 
Wed.

$$
KONARIK