000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the pressure gradient over Mexico tightens over the western Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico. These storm-force winds will persist until 12Z Mon and gale- force winds will continue through Tue night. These winds will result in very large seas, peaking to 22 ft tonight, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well to the southwest of the source region to near 05N110W by Tue night. Seas will gradually subside by Wed. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N84W to 03N102W to 06N119W. The ITCZ extends from 06N119W to 10N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 105W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Storm-force N winds of 40-50 kt are ongoing with wave heights ranging from 12-22 ft. Winds elsewhere north of 12N between 94W- 98W are N to NE in the gale-force range of 30-40 kt, and wave heights are 12-18 ft. A ship observation at 06Z near 14N94W was reporting 45 kt winds with seas to 17 ft. NE winds of 20-30 kt are over the remainder waters N of 09N between 93W- 100W along with wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft. Outside of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail off the Baja California and Baja California Sur offshores. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of California. An overnight ASCAT pass shows moderate winds offshore of southwestern Mexico, near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail between Cabo Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across the area, with seas to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, storm-force winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this morning, with gale-force winds continuing through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the region. On Tue night, seas could reach near 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California along with building NW swell accompanying the front west of Baja California. Moderate winds will prevail off Cabo Corrientes midweek and become fresh later in the week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds can be expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Overnight ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale-force offshore winds in the Papagayo region with seas 8-9 ft. Meanwhile, strong to near gale-force winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are reaching the offshores of Guatemala with seas 12 to 18 ft. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama and light to gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the offshore waters outside of Guatemala and Papagayo. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the Colombia coast and in the Gulf of Panama, N of 01N and W of 83W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through Wed night. Fresh to near gale- force winds will continue over the Guatemala offshore waters west of 92W Mon, while moderate to fresh winds will be offshore of El Salvador through early Tue. Seas generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec storm- force gap wind event will continue to propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue night. Wave heights will peak near 18 ft early this morning near 11N94W. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Overnight ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds over the open waters, along with seas of 5-6 ft due to primarily a NW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ, with trades increasing to moderate to fresh today. By Tue through Wed night, winds will further increase fresh to strong as a surface trough moves westward within the tropical belt regio while strong high pressure builds southward across the area. Wave heights are expected to peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed and Wed night. Winds will become fresh by Thu with seas continuing to be around 8 ft into next weekend. A cold front will drop to the south of 30N on Tue, bringing increasing winds and seas over the north- central waters Wed and Wed night. $$ AReinhart