000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force tonight as the pressure gradient begins to significantly tightens. Winds will further increase to storm-force Sun afternoon through late Sun night, with gale-force then persisting into early Wed. These winds will result in very large seas, up to 20 ft, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well to the southwest of the source region to near 09N112W by Tue afternoon. Seas will gradually subside early next week. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08N79W to 07N90W to 06N100W to 07N106W. It resumes at 10N120W to 10N129W. ITCZ extends from 07N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 78W-80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Light to gentle winds remain across most of the waters of Mexico, except moderate to fresh in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Isolated showers are possible over some areas of southern Mexico. For the forecast, other than the developing storm warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Norte Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend, and then again by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong offshore winds continue in the Papagayo region as noted in an overnight ASCAT pass. A ship reported northeast winds of 25 kt and combined wave heights of 8 ft this morning near 10N88W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the offshore waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region. The earlier scattered showers and thunderstorms that were within 120 nm west of Colombia are quickly weakening. An increasing area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted from 14N to 17N between 106W-108W associated to a trough that is just west of the offshore waters zones. In addition, a moist atmospheric environment is helping to sustain this activity. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through early next week, with wave heights peaking around 17 ft near 11N96W early Mon morning. Winds of fresh to near gale force will spill into the same area of seas, highest near 12N95W. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. A trough extends from near 16N111W to 12N114W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the trough from 14N to 16N. Another trough extends from near 13N111W to 07N113W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of this trough from 07N to 092N, and also from 06N to 09N between 116W-118W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are over the open waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft due to mixed long- period SW and NW swell. For the forecast, the surface troughs will move westward through Sun while dissipating. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh to strong in the west-central waters from early Tue through Wed night as another surface trough moves westward within the tropical belt region, and at the same time strong high pressure builds southward across the area. Wave heights are expected to peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed. Per latest model guidance, it appears most likely that a cold front will drop to the south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas over the north-central waters Wed and Wed night. $$ Aguirre