000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120806 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force this evening as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will further increase to storm-force Sun evening through around midnight, with gale-force then persisting into early Wed. These winds will result in very large seas, up to 20 ft, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well southwest of the source region. Seas will gradually subside early next week. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 09N112W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 10N117W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 92W and 103W, and also from 10N to 14N between 118W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the waters of Mexico, except moderate to fresh in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Isolated to scattered showers are moving across southern Mexico from the southwest. For the forecast, other than the developing storm warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Norte Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend, and then again by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Isolated to scattered moderate convection continues offshore of Colombia and Panama due to a nearby surface trough and southeasterly flow from the deep tropics. Fresh to strong offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the offshore waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through early next week, with wave heights peaking around 16 ft near 11N96W early Mon morning. Winds of fresh to near gale force will spill into the same area of seas, highest near 12N95W. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. A couple of weakening surface troughs are along the ITCZ, the western one extending from 17N133W to 09N135W, and the eastern one extending from 17N110W to 10N115W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near both troughs. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swell. For the forecast, the surface troughs along the ITCZ will gradually dissipate today. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh to strong in the west-central waters early Tue through Wed as another surface trough along the ITCZ moves into the ridge. A cold front may drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas over the north- central waters toward mid-week. $$ Lewitsky