000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure the Gulf of Mexico and the equatorial 
trough in the eastern Pacific is supporting gale force winds over
the Tehuantepec region. Northerly winds are peaking tonight at 
40 kt with seas of 15-16 ft. Winds will begin diminishing on Wed
morning, and then drop below gale-force by Wed evening. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica
near 10N86W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N 
between 121W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show moderate NW winds across 
much of the Gulf of California. Seas there are ranging between 3
to 4 ft. Gale force N winds of 35-40 kt are occurring in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas ranging between 12-16 ft. Gentle 
to moderate N winds are noted west of Baja California and off 
Cabo Corrientes, where seas are likely 4-6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure over Mexico and the equatorial trough over the east
Pacific waters will continue to support gale-force winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this evening. Northerly winds there 
will then remain strong through Thu morning before diminishing. 
Elsewhere, moderate NW winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail west of Baja 
and off Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, the next gale force 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin over the 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W
to 03N82W. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the 
trough. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data depicts moderate NE 
winds in the Papagayo region, where seas are likely 4-5 ft. Seas 
are 8-12 ft well offshore of Guatemala due to N swell from a 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. Light to gentle variable
winds prevail elsewhere with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds will prevail in 
the Papagayo region through the forecast period. Pulsing 
moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama each
night through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere. The aforementioned swell generated from the gale-force
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside below 8 
ft by Wed evening over the Guatemala offshore waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Recent ASCAT data depicts fresh NE winds from 14N to 25N and 
west of 125W. These winds are occurring to the east of a surface 
trough currently analyzed along 137W. This activity is also being
enhanced up an upper-level trough. Fresh trades prevail west of 
135W and north of 15N. This area is under the influence of 
moderate NW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 
6-7 ft are present elsewhere over the area. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue from 10N to
25N and west of 120W through today. Thereafter, the area of 
fresh winds will shrink in size as winds diminish slightly. The 
surface trough along 137W will drift E, producing fresh to 
strong winds near it Thu and Fri.

$$
ERA