978 AXPZ20 KNHC 090251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure the Gulf of Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is supporting gale force winds over the Tehuantepec region. Northerly winds are peaking tonight at 40 kt with seas of 15-16 ft. Winds will begin diminishing on Wed morning, and then drop below gale-force by Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica near 09N87W to 05N97W. The ITCZ continues from 05N97W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 117W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh NW winds across much of the Gulf of California. Seas there are likely 3 to 4 ft. Gale force N winds of 35-40 kt are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas ranging between 12-16 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted west of Baja California and off Cabo Corrientes, where seas are likely 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and the equatorial trough over the east Pacific waters will continue to support gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed evening. Northerly winds there will then remain strong through Thu morning before diminishing. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California will persist through tonight before diminishing to moderate on Wed. Moderate winds west of Baja and off Cabo Corrientes will diminish to gentle tonight. Looking ahead, the next gale force event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 03N81W. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data depicts moderate NE winds in the Papagayo region, where seas are likely 4-5 ft. Seas are 7-10 ft now well offshore of Guatemala due to N swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere with seas in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate winds in the Papagayo region should continue through tonight. Then, pulsing fresh to strong winds will resume in the Papagayo region Wed morning and continue pulsing through the forecast period. Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama each night through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. The aforementioned swell generated from the gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will peak through tonight at 8 to 12 ft over the Guatemala offshore waters. Seas there will subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Recent ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong NE winds from 19N to 22N between 135W and 140W. These winds are occurring in scattered moderate convection to the east of a surface trough. This activity is also being enhanced up an upper-level trough. Fresh trades prevail west of 135W and north of 15N. This area is under the influence of moderate NW swell. Fresh trades also prevail from the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 132W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident where the fresh winds are occurring. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-7 ft are present elsewhere over the area. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue from 10N to 25N and west of 120W through Wed. Thereafter, the area of fresh winds will shrink in size as winds diminish slightly. A surface trough is expected to form Thu along 135W from 12N-19N. This trough will drift E, producing fresh to strong winds near it Thu and Fri. $$ ERA