000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
forecast to build southeastward across Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico late today. A tight pressure gradient between the
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific 
will support gale-force winds beginning tonight. These winds are
expected to rapidly reach speeds of 40 kt with seas building to 
15 ft by Tue afternoon. Winds will drop below gale-force by Wed 
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N86W to 06N90W to 05N96W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 09N115W, then resumes W of a 
trough near 07N122W to 07.5N140W. A surface trough extending
from 11.5N116.5W to 06N120W splits the ITCZ. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 106W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
California with seas of 3-4 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly 
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore 
waters to the region of Jalisco with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to
strong N winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas
to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf
of California will continue through the middle of this week,
briefly increasing to strong speeds over the central Gulf of
California tonight. Moderate winds are expected for the Baja 
offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The fresh to
strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to near
gale force this afternoon, and gale force tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region 
with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted 
in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle 
variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the Papagayo region 
should continue to pulse through early Tue. Winds are then 
expected to briefly diminish through Tue night. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds will resume in the Papagayo region early Wed 
morning and continue through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Winds in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to pulse to 
fresh speeds at night through Wed night, then again Fri night. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds should prevail across the 
Central American and equatorial waters through Fri. Swell 
generated from an upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec is forecast to produce large seas over the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue afternoon through 
Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough is along 135W from 12N to 18N. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 13N to 20N between 131W and
136W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds
near the surface trough, and these winds are likely still
occurring. An upper-level trough extends from 12N122W to 14N135W
to 19N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 
the upper-trough due to upper-level divergence, from 20N to 30N 
between 133W and 139W.

Ridging from a 1032 mb high pressure north of the area extends 
across the northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated
with the surface trough along 135W is producing fresh NE to E 
winds roughly from 13N to 22N and W of 117W. Seas of 8-10 ft are
evident in this region, which is under the influence of mixed NE
and NW swell, highest near the surface trough. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present elsewhere over the 
area. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of 
the area for the next few days. This should maintain an area of 
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and W 
of 120W through Wed morning, when the winds are forecast to 
start diminishing. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 
8 ft by Thu.

$$
Hagen