000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
forecast to build southeastward across Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico late Mon. A tight pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific
should support gale- force winds beginning Mon night. These 
winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt with seas to 
13 ft building to 17 ft on Tue night. Winds will drop below 
gale-force by Wed afternoon. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to
future forecasts that will highlight details regarding this 
ongoing event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N87W to 05N96W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N96W to 07N118W, then resumes W of a trough 
near 07N121W to 07N140W. Surface trough is along 118W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of 
trough and ITCZ between 105W-129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
California with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly 
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore 
waters to the region of Jalisco with seas to 5 ft. Light to 
gentle variable winds prevail across the rest of the SW Mexican 
offshores.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf
of California will continue through the middle of this week, 
increasing to strong speeds over the northern half of the gulf 
today. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected for the Baja
offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The next 
gale-force gap wind event for the Tehuantepec region is forecast 
to begin tonight and continue through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft.
Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the region of 
Papagayo should continue until early Tue, mainly at night. Winds
are then expected to briefly diminish through Wed, and are then 
expected to pulse to fresh to strong at night Wed night through 
the end of the week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to 
pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds should prevail across the Central American and 
equatorial waters through Fri. Swell generated from an upcoming 
gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast
to produce large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters Tue night through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1033 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with a 
surface trough between 10N and 13N is producing fresh NE to E 
winds roughly from 13N to 22N and W of 125W. Seas of 8-9 ft are 
evident in this region, which is under the influence of mixed NE 
and NW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft 
are present elsewhere over the area. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of 
the area for the next several days. This should maintain an area
of fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and
W of 120W until midweek, when the winds are forecast to start 
diminishing. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft 
by Thu.

$$
ERA