000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday. Strong high pressure will
build in the wake of the front, surging southward over the 
western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Fri. The pressure
gradient will tighten between this building high pressure and the
equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific. Strong N to NE winds 
will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Fri. Winds will 
further increase to gale-force during the afternoon and further 
increase to strong gale-force on Sat, before diminishing below 
gale- force by Sun evening. Seas with this upcoming event are 
forecast to peak near 18 ft Sat. Mariners are urged to stay tuned
to future forecasts that will highlight details regarding this 
upcoming event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07N90W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 07N100W to 09N106W to 08N115W. It resumes near 08N129W
to beyond 06N140W. No significant convection is presently noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds are noted over much of the Gulf of 
California with gentle to moderate winds over the far southern 
portion and entrance to the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are in the 
6-8 ft range over the portion of the Gulf where fresh to strong
winds prevail, and 2-3 ft over the portion with gentle to
moderate winds. Gentle to moderate winds are west of the Baja 
California peninsula, and light to gentle winds prevail over the 
remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range 
west of Baja California Norte in northerly swell, and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and surface trough over Mexico will support
fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California through the 
end of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected from Fri afternoon to Sun. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region as
well as over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are noted over the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish slightly tonight, then increase to fresh to 
strong speeds Sat and Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly today. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and 
equatorial waters. Swell generated from a gale-force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1032 mb is centered north of the area near 
39N133W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N 
and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft
range, except for slightly higher seas of up to 12 ft north of 
26N between 120W-130W as was noted in a recent altimeter data 
pass over that part of the area. Gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of 
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 20N and 
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly beginning
Fri and through the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft will remain between
10N and 25N west of 120W through Fri.

$$
Aguirre