000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong high pressure will surge southward over the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Fri. The resultant tight gradient between it and lower pressures south of Mexico is expected to bring strong N winds to the Gulf early Fri, increasing to gale-force during the afternoon and to strong gale-force on Sat. Seas with this event are forecast to significantly build on Sat. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future forecasts that will highlight details regarding this upcoming event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 07N87W to 05N94W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N102W to 10N110W to 09N120W. It resumes at 07N132W to 08N120W and to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is presently noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for information on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Fresh to strong NW winds are over the waters west of Baja California Norte with seas in the 8-12 ft range in N swell, except for high seas of 12-14 ft north of 29N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are over the northern Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of California combined with low pressure over the SW United States and Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds and building seas over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Thu morning. This setup will also produce fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California through Thu, diminishing to fresh speeds by early Thu evening. Seas will build to 9 ft in the northern Gulf of California late tonight, subsiding to less than 8 ft Thu. A gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected from Fri to early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama will change little through Fri. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are over the discussion waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo region will become light to gentle NE to E Thu night, increase to moderate to fresh NE winds on Fri and fresh to strong NE winds Sat and Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters. Swell generated from a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1035 mb is well north of the area 40N134W. A surface trough is located west of the area from 27N144W to 16N144W. Another surface trough is along the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-12 ft over the waters north of 22N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. A surface trough extends from 11N123W to 06N130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the between 123W-125W. For the forecast, the high will sink southward during the next couple of days. This will cause the fresh to strong NE trades to shift southward to cover the waters from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish the end of the week through the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft will remain between 10N and 25N west of 120W through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre