000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021618
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 2 2022

Corrected header time 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and 
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following 
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, 
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 07N87W to 05N94W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 05N102W to 10N110W to 09N120W. It resumes
at 07N132W to 08N120W and to beyond 07N140W. No significant 
convection is presently noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong NW winds are over the waters west of Baja 
California Norte with seas in the 8-12 ft range in N swell, 
except for high seas of 12-14 ft north of 29N. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the open 
waters off Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are over the northern 
Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate winds over the 
remainder of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
west of California combined with low pressure over the SW United 
States and Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds and 
building seas over the waters west of the Baja California 
peninsula through Thu morning. This setup will also produce 
fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California this morning
through Thu night. The next gale-force gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected from Fri to Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh N winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to
SW swell are over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail the remainder of the week, with strong NE 
winds expected to resume Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds in 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish by Thu. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and 
equatorial waters. Swell generated from a gale-force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1035 mb is well north of the area 41N135W. A 
surface trough is located west of the area from 27N144W to 
16N144W. Another surface trough is along the Gulf of California. 
The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh 
to strong winds and seas of 8-12 ft over the waters north of 22N.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 20N. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

A surface trough extends from 11N123W to 06N130W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the between 
123W-125W.

For the forecast, the high will sink southward during the next 
couple of days. This will cause the fresh to strong NE trades to 
shift southward to cover the waters from 10N to 20N and west of 
120W. The winds will start to diminish the end of the week 
through the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft will remain between 10N and 
25N west of 120W through the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre