000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020048
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N81W to 05N99W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N99W to 08N125W. It resumes from 08N136W to  
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 19N between 120W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong NW winds are over the waters west of Baja 
California Norte with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle
to moderate winds are over the northern Gulf of California, and
light to gentle over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft 
over the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the 
waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
west of California combined with low pressure over the SW United 
States and Mexico will produce fresh to strong NW winds and 
building seas over the waters west of the Baja California 
peninsula tonight through Thu morning. A weak cold front will 
produce fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Wed 
morning to Thu night. The next gale- force gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Fri, and diminish below 
gale- force on Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh N winds 
and seas of 4-5 ft are occurring over the Gulf of Panama. Light 
to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail the remainder of the week, with strong NE 
winds expected to resume Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds in 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish by Thu. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and 
equatorial waters. Swell generated from a gale-force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high centered near 
43N136W and a trough just west of 140W forcing fresh to strong E
winds north of 24N and west of 132W. Seas are 8-10 ft in mixed E
wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, the NE 
trades are gentle to moderate. South of the ITCZ, the SE trades 
are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the high will sink southward during the next 
two days and cause the area of fresh to strong NE trades to 
expand and reach south to 10N and east to 120W by Thu. The winds
will relax Thu night through Sun. Seas will increase, peaking 
around 12-13 ft north of 28N east of 130W on Wed. Seas of 8-11 
ft will remain between 10-25N west of 120W through the week end.

$$
AL