000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N95W to 09N123W to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection 
is noted from 08N-16N between 123W-132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring over the waters west of
Baja California Norte with seas 7-8 ft this afternoon. Elsewhere
quiescent conditions prevail over the Mexican Offshore waters 
with moderate or weaker winds occurring. Seas are 1-2 ft over the
Gulf of California and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, building high pressure west of California 
combined with low pressure developing over the SW United States 
and Mexico will produce fresh to strong NW winds and building 
seas over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula 
tonight through Thu morning. A weak cold front should produce 
fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Wed morning 
to Thu night. The next Tehuantepecer gap wind event is expected 
to begin Fri, reach gale-force N winds Fri night, and diminish 
below gale-force by Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region this afternoon with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N 
winds and seas 4-6 ft are occurring over the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail the remainder of the week, with strong NE 
winds expected to resume Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds in 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish by Thu. Elsewhere, winds should 
remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial 
waters. A gale-force Tehuantepecer gap wind event should produce 
large NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters
on Sat and Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high centered near 
43N136W and a trough just west of 140W forcing fresh to strong E
winds north of 24N and west of 132W. Seas are 8-10 ft in mixed E
wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, the NE 
trades are gentle to moderate. South of the ITCZ, the SE trades 
are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the high will sink southward during the next 
two days and cause the area of fresh to strong NE trades to 
expand and reach south to 10N and east to 120W by Thu. The winds
will relax Thu night through Sun. Seas will increase, peaking 
around 12-13 ft north of 28N east of 130W on Wed. Seas of 8-11 
ft will remain between 10-25N west of 120W through the week end.

$$
Landsea