000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build southward across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Fri night into Sat. The resultant tight pressure gradient is expected to result in a strong gale-force gap wind event beginning Fri night. Peak winds with this event are forecast to reach 45 kt on Sat along with building seas reach the range of 9-13 ft on Sat. Model guidance indicates that strong to near gale-force northeast winds will reach downstream from the Gulf to near 10N and west to 99W during Sat afternoon along with seas of 8-12 ft. Mariners are urged to be on the lookout for this upcoming event as it will likely lead to hazardous marine conditions in the impacted waters. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N83W to 06N91W to 05N98W and to 07N116W, where it pauses. It resumes at 09N116W to low pressure near 07N123W 1010 mb, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N128W to 05N136W and to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 116W-119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for information on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The latest ASCAT data passes show fresh N winds in the northern Gulf of California and moderate NW winds in the central Gulf of California. Seas of 3-4 ft are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force north winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6-7 ft. Moderate north winds are likely occurring off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft are occurring from west of Baja California to offshore Manzanillo, in west to northwest swell. Seas are 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning. Thereafter, a strong gap wind event will begin by late Fri afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri evening, as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and last through the upcoming weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon, but remain strong through Sun night. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong northwest winds are expected Thu night through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The earlier moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo region have increases to fresh to strong speeds. Mainly fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to about 06N. Seas are 4-5 ft in these areas. Light to gentle variable winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere. Isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery south of Panama and west of Colombia. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight through Thu night, then again Sat night through Mon. Winds may pulse to near gale-force late Sun night. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area Sat night through Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest to north swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the wave heights to a range of 9-13 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 20N129W to low pressure near 20N133W 1011 mb and to 16N140W. Another surface trough extends from 20N128W to 13N130W. To the northwest of these features, yet another surface trough extends from 29N133W to weak low pressure near 28N137W, and from the low southwest to near 25N140W. These features are under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to sustain them. Latest satellite imagery shows broken patches of moderate rain and scattered showers from 20N to 24N between 123W-139W. Similar precipitation activity is seen from 16N to 20N between 122W-126W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring from about 19N to 23N and between 124W-135W, with moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 17N-21N between 135W-140W. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights of 6-8 ft across the entire area, west of 105W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft east of 105W to vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay today. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the basin through Fri. A surface trough is likely to amplify over the open high seas near 127W/128W during the weekend. It will be accompanied by fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W- 133W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night. It is possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this occurs, then near-gale force winds could occur within that area on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the northern waters early next week, with fresh to strong winds behind it. Latest Wave model guidance suggests that this front will usher in a rather extensive set of NW swell into the northwest part of the area early next week. $$ Aguirre