000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N82W to 07N91W to 06N105W. A monsoon trough extends from 08N107W to low pressure near 09N111W 1011 mb to another low pressure near 08N121W 1010 mb to 06.5N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to 05N130W to 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 07N between 77W and 83W, from 05.5N to 15N between 105W and 118W, and from 06.5N to 08N between 119W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The latest scatterometer data shows fresh N winds in the northern Gulf of California and moderate NW winds in the central Gulf of California. Seas of 3-4 ft are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force N winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6-7 ft. Moderate N winds are likely occurring off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft are occurring from west of Baja California to offshore Manzanillo, in W to NW swell. Recent altimeter data shows seas of 5-6 ft offshore Michoacan. For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning. Thereafter, a strong gap wind event will begin by late Fri afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri evening, as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and last through the upcoming weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon, but remain strong through Sun night. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong northwest winds are expected Thu night through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds may occur Fri into Fri evening west of Baja California Norte, in between San Quintin and Punta Eugenia. Generally gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds are likely occurring across the Papagayo region. The latest scatterometer data shows mainly moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to about 05N. Seas are 4-5 ft in these areas. Light to gentle variable winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere. Moderate rain showers are noted on satellite imagery south of Panama and west of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight through Thu night, then again Sat night through Mon. Winds may pulse to near gale force Sun night. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area Sat night through Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest to north swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the wave heights to a range of 9-13 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 21N131W to low pressure near 19N134W 1012 mb to 16N140W. Another surface trough extends from 20N127W to 17N129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16.5N to 22N between 121.5W and 133W. This activity is shifting east-northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring from 20N-23N between 124W-135W, with moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 17N-21N between 135W- 140W. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights of 6-8 ft across the entire area, west of 105W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft east of 105W to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the basin through Fri. A surface trough is likely to amplify over the open high seas near 127W/128W during the weekend. It will be accompanied by fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W- 133W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night. It is possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this occurs, then near-gale force winds could occur within that area on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the northern waters early next week, with fresh to strong winds behind it. $$ Hagen