000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Colombia near 04.5N77W southwest 
to 02.5N78W. A surface trough axis extends from Costa Rica near
09N84W to low pressure near 07.5N90W 1011 mb. The monsoon trough
extends from 07.5N90W to 09N106W. A surface trough extends
from 12N107W to low pres near 08N110W 1011 mb to low pres near
09N118W 1011 mb to 07N128W. The ITCZ continues from 07N128W to
08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N
between 77W and 81W and from 06N to 10N between 105W and 119W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Latest ASCAT wind data shows light to gentle winds across most of
the Mexico offshore waters, with moderate N winds observed
offshore Cabo Corrientes. Moderate W winds are noted near the 
coast of Oaxaca. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Baja California in WNW 
swell, 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell will continue west of
Baja California through tonight before subsiding. Strong N 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight
through Thu night. Then, gap winds to gale-force speeds are 
possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night as a 
strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into 
southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and lasting through the 
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong NW winds are likely in the Gulf
of California late Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh east gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo region, 
while light to gentle variable winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft
are elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf 
of Panama. 

For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east gap winds across 
the Papagayo region will pulse to strong Wed through Thu, then
again late Sat through Mon. Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds 
will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then
return to the area Sat night. Over the remainder of area, winds 
should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest
swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event 
will infiltrate the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on 
Sat and Sat night building the seas there to around 10 to 14 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly light to
gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 18N129W
to 13N133W. Upper-level troughing is present between 130W-140W.
Divergence aloft to the east of the upper-trough is enhancing
scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 13.5N to 22N
between 121W-136W. This activity is helping to maintain an area
of moderate to locally fresh east winds over the waters from 
19N-23N between 128W-140W. Northwest swell is producing 
significant wave heights of 7-9 ft over the waters from 05N to 
30N and between 120W-140W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the west to northwest swell will decrease in 
coverage over the next 24-30 hours while it subsides. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue across the basin through Fri. A
surface trough is likely to amplify over the weekend, bringing
fresh to strong winds and building seas in the vicinity of 10N-
20N between 123W-133W.

$$
Hagen